When evaluating Portugal Golden Visa funds, you will often see a 1-to-7 risk score shown in the Key Information Document. This scale, known as the Synthetic Risk and Reward Indicator (SRRI), provides a quick way to compare funds based on their historical price volatility.

However, while the SRRI is useful for orientation, it does not capture all the relevant risks and qualitative factors. For Golden Visa investors, understanding how the fund generates returns, how the manager operates, and what drives price stability is even more important than the numerical score itself.

What the SRRI Measures

The SRRI places funds into categories based on how much their price has moved in the past. It relies on approximately five years of historical data, measuring the ups and downs in the fund’s value.

1–3: lower volatility and typically lower return potential
3–4: moderate fluctuations
5–7: higher volatility, higher potential return and higher uncertainty

It is important to remember:

The SRRI measures volatility, not total risk, strategy quality, or future performance.

Typical SRRI Levels by Asset Class

Asset Class	Typical SRRI / SRI Range	Why
Bond Funds	2–4	More stable income and lower volatility.
Balanced / Mixed Funds	3–4	Blending bonds and equities reduces swings.
Equity Funds	5–6 (sometimes 7)	Equity markets move more sharply.
Private Equity Funds	Usually 5–7*	Higher return targets and lower liquidity.
Private Credit Funds	Often 3–5*	Depends on loan quality, diversification, and leverage.

*For Portugal Golden Visa funds, most Private Equity and Private Credit funds use the PRIIPs SRI score (similar 1–7 scale), not the SRRI.

Why the Risk Score Is Only the Starting Point

For Golden Visa investors, the key question is not only how volatile the fund has been, but what drives risk and performance behind the scenes.

Private Equity Funds for the Portugal Golden Visa

Private Equity funds are commonly used for Portugal Golden Visa investments because they provide professional management, diversified exposure, and the potential for capital appreciation. In this asset class, the fund manager is the main driver of both value and risk. Performance depends not on daily market movements, but on the quality of investment decisions and the manager’s involvement in supporting and developing portfolio companies.

Key factors to evaluate:

What to Look For	Why It Matters
Team and Governance	Clear decision-making structures and experienced leadership support consistent, disciplined execution.
Deal Sourcing Strategy	Managers with proprietary deal flow can access opportunities earlier and negotiate more favorable entry prices.
Investment Discipline	Avoiding overpaying is essential for protecting capital and enabling sustainable long-term returns.
Track Record of Exits	Realized exit results show whether the manager can successfully convert strategy into actual returns.
Use of Leverage (Debt)	Moderate or low leverage reduces vulnerability during economic downturns and preserves capital.
Ability to Raise Successive Funds	Managers who attract commitments across multiple funds of the same strategy demonstrate investor trust, repeatability, and operational maturity.
Portfolio Company Involvement	Value creation often comes from active support such as improving governance, operations, market positioning, or management capabilities.

In short, the main risks and opportunities in Private Equity relate to how the manager finds, acquires, improves, and exits companies. The SRRI number reflects past volatility, but long-term outcomes depend on the manager’s discipline, experience, and execution.

Mutual Funds and Public Market Risks in Portugal

Mutual funds provide daily liquidity and transparency, but are influenced by market structure and investor behavior.

The Portuguese stock market (PSI) has only 16 listed companies, which limits diversification.
Our 5-year performance analysis shows:

Approx. 5.5% average annual return
Approx. 17.8% annual volatility

This means returns are achievable, but the path to those returns can be uneven.

Flow Risk Example: When Investor Withdrawals Affect You

Mutual funds must allow investors to enter and exit freely. If many investors withdraw during market stress, the manager may need to sell assets quickly.

Example:

A Portuguese equity fund holds EDP, Galp, and Jerónimo Martins. During an adverse event, many investors redeem. To raise cash efficiently, the manager sells EDP, the most liquid stock — even if it is one of the strongest holdings.

The fund is then left overweight in less liquid and more volatile stocks, increasing risk for remaining investors, through no change in the strategy itself.

This is Flow Risk — risk caused not by the investments, but by the behavior of other investors.

Key Takeaways for Golden Visa Investors

The SRRI is helpful, but not sufficient on its own to evaluate a fund.
In Private Equity Golden Visa funds, the most important factor is manager quality and governance discipline.
In Mutual Funds, diversification limits and investor flow dynamics are critical to understanding real portfolio risk.
The best investment is not defined by having the lowest risk score, but by having transparent, well-managed, and purposeful risks aligned with your time horizon and residency objectives.

Invest wisely by looking beyond the number.

Evaluating Risk in Portugal Golden Visa Funds